RACING EDGE PRO

Professional Handicapping Analysis

Course
WOLVERHAMPTON
Time
20:00
Distance
5f 21y
Prize
£3,716
Surface
AW
Runners
8
Field Quality
Standard Field
Avg: 52.3
⭐ STRONG BET
14.3 point gap - Clear standout, high confidence
Gap to 2nd
14.3 pts

💰 VALUE ANALYSIS - LIVE ODDS

✓ 2 VALUE BETS (Total: £40)
🔥🔥 POPULAR DREAM #1
RATING
72.7
ODDS
6.10
TISSUE
2.95
WIN %
34.0%
EDGE
+17.6%
✓ WIN BET WIN: £21 → Return: £128
SPEED OF MAAJID #2
RATING
58.4
ODDS
5.02
TISSUE
5.40
WIN %
18.5%
EDGE
-1.4%
✗ NO VALUE
GOOD POINT #3
RATING
57.4
ODDS
4.23
TISSUE
5.62
WIN %
17.8%
EDGE
-5.9%
✗ NO VALUE
MEGAPHONE #4
RATING
56.8
ODDS
33.00
TISSUE
5.76
WIN %
17.4%
EDGE
+14.3%
🏆 PLACE BET PLACE: £19 @ 9.00 → Return: £171
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) #5
RATING
39.0
ODDS
5.90
TISSUE
12.93
WIN %
7.7%
EDGE
-9.2%
✗ NO VALUE
SPENDMORE LANE #6
RATING
29.7
ODDS
29.00
TISSUE
21.57
WIN %
4.6%
EDGE
+1.2%
⚠ FAIR ODDS
Top Rated
POPULAR DREAM
🎯 ELITE C/D #1 Rated
Rating
72.7
Draw
6
Age/Weight
5yo / 9-05
Speed Figure
102.8
Finish Speed (5 runs)
102.1%
Factors
8/10
Form: 17338913 | Trainer: Derek Shaw | Jockey: Joanna Mason (J:11%) | Days off: 8
High draw disadvantage (-1.5)
Speed: STABLE | Adjustment: -0.5 points
✅ GOING PROVEN 📏 TRIP PROVEN ⏳ HOLD UP (103%/3.9L) 📊 VOLATILE (SD:12) 🎯 COMPOUND ANGLE (3) +2.0 🏆 RECENT WINNER (29d) ⚡ BOUNCE CANDIDATE (fav→3)
CONFIDENCE
★★★★☆
Strong profile with minor Draw concerns.
SECTIONAL PROFILE AVERAGE
102.1%
✓ Strong finishing kick
SPEED OF MAAJID
#2 Rated
Rating
58.4
Draw
2
Age/Weight
3yo / 9-07
Speed Figure
110.1
Finish Speed (3 runs)
102.8%
Factors
9/10
Form: 23447724 | Trainer: Robert Cowell (T:13%) | Jockey: George Wood | Days off: 23
Low draw advantage (+4.5)
Speed: DECLINING | Adjustment: -4.3 points
⬇️ CLASS DROP 📏 TRIP PROVEN 🎭 HEADGEAR CHANGE 🏇 JOCKEY RETAINED 🏇 PROMINENT (103%/2.1L) 📊 VOLATILE (SD:13)
CONFIDENCE
★★☆☆☆
Significant concerns: Speed, Form.
SECTIONAL PROFILE GOOD FINISHER
102.8%
✓ Strong finishing kick
GOOD POINT
🎯 ELITE C/D ⏱️ MEETS PAR #3 Rated
Rating
57.4
Draw
1
Age/Weight
4yo / 9-05
Speed Figure
102.9
Finish Speed (3 runs)
101.9%
Factors
9/10
Form: 3-7320425 | Trainer: Bryan Smart | Jockey: Aiden Brookes (3) (🎫 3lb claimer) | Days off: 29
Low draw advantage (+4.5)
Speed: DECLINING | Adjustment: +1.4 points
📏 TRIP PROVEN 📍 MID-DIVISION (102%/3.1L) 📊 VOLATILE (SD:8)
CONFIDENCE
★★★★☆
Strong profile with minor Form concerns.
⚖️ 3lb Claim
Apprentice Aiden Brookes claims 3lb weight allowance.
SECTIONAL PROFILE AVERAGE
101.9%
🎯 Understanding Our Signals
📊 OVERALL ASSESSMENT
★★★★★ Confidence Rating
★★★★★ All factors align - back with confidence
★★★★☆ Strong profile, minor concerns
★★★☆☆ Mixed signals - proceed cautiously
★★☆☆☆ Significant concerns outweigh positives
🎯 Compound Angles
Multiple positive factors = stronger signal:
COMPOUND ANGLE (X) X factors aligned
Factors: Trip, Going, Class, Fitness, Jockey, C/D
Rating bonus: +1.5 per angle over 2 (max +5)
📋 FORM & FITNESS
Form Badges
✅ GOING PROVEN Won on ground
🛤️ TRIP PROVEN Won at distance
🏆 RECENT WINNER Won <60 days
⏰ STALE Win >180 days ago
⚠️ EXPOSED MAIDEN Never won
🔄 Form Cycle
📈 BOUNCE DUE 74% likely
📈 AT TROUGH 74% bounce
📉 REGRESSION DUE 80% likely
📉 AT PEAK 79% regress
+2.0 pts bounce | -1.5 pts regress
📊 Last Time Out (LTO)
✅ LTO WINNER Won last race
❌ LTO DNF Did not finish
📈 IMPROVING Form up
📉 DECLINING Form down
⚡ SPEED ANALYSIS
⚡ True Speed Figures VARIANT-ADJ
Comparable across all races:
110+ Group/Listed class
105-109 Handicap winner
100-104 Par / Competitive
<95 Below average
🏃 Energy Profile RUNNING STYLE
🏃 STRONG CLOSER Finish SF > Early
⚖️ EVEN PACE Balanced energy
🚀 FRONT RUNNER Early SF > Finish
Match energy profile to pace scenario
📈 Finishing Speed %
Final 3f vs race average:
103%+ Strong finisher - gains late
100-103% Maintains pace
97-100% Average finish
<97% Weakens late
🎯 PAR Analysis (C/D)
🎯 ELITE C/D +5 pts
🎯 STRONG C/D +3 pts
⏱️ ELITE TIME +3 pts
⏱️ MEETS PAR +1.5 pts
📊 SF Consistency
RELIABLE Std Dev <3
MODERATE Std Dev 3-6
INCONSISTENT Std Dev >6
Reliable horses more predictable
🏆 Prior Win Rate STRONGEST
50%+ WIN RATE +6 pts
30-50% WIN RATE +5 pts
15-30% WIN RATE +3 pts
MAIDEN (0%) -2 pts
👥 CONNECTIONS
🎯 Trainer Intent
🔲 FIRST BLINKERS Transformative
⚡ QUICK BACK Opportunity
⬇️ CLASS DROP Dominate
👁️ FIRST VISOR Focus aid
🏇 Jockey Signals
⭐ TOP JOCKEY Leading rider
⬇️ JOCKEY OFF Replaced
🔄 JOCKEY UPGRADE Better jock
🔒 JOCKEY RETAINED Same winner
⬆️ Class & Equipment
⬇️ CLASS DROP Racing below recent OR avg
📈 PROGRESSIVE Up after win (expected)
⬆️ CLASS RISE Stepping up significantly
🔓 HEADGEAR OFF Removed
🏟️ TRACK FACTORS
🏟️ Course Specialists
🏟️ COURSE SPECIALIST Multiple wins here
🎿 AW SPECIALIST Excels on all-weather
🏆 C/D Course & Distance winner
C Course winner | D Distance winner
📊 Data Quality
Reliability of speed figure analysis:
HIGH CONFIDENCE 5+ runs analysed
⚠️ 3-4 RUNS Medium confidence
⚠️ LIMITED DATA Low reliability
All Runners - Complete Form Data
⭐ #1 POPULAR DREAM
🎯 ELITE C/D 72.7
DRAW
6
AGE/WGT
5yo / 9-05
OR
65
TFR
82
TRUE SF
102.8
FORM
338913
Trainer: Derek Shaw Jockey: Joanna Mason (J:11%) Days off: 8
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
📏 TRIP PROVEN 📊 VOLATILE (SD:12) 🎯 COMPOUND ANGLE (3) +2.0 🏆 RECENT WINNER (29d) ⚡ BOUNCE CANDIDATE (fav→3)
CONFIDENCE
★★★★☆
Strong profile with minor Draw concerns.
TRAINER INTENT
✓ Fresh (8d)
Minor positive signal worth noting.
JOCKEY
Joanna Mason
No notable signals
SECTIONAL PROFILE AVERAGE
102.1%
✓ Strong finishing kick
#2 SPEED OF MAAJID
58.4
DRAW
2
AGE/WGT
3yo / 9-07
OR
67
TFR
83
TRUE SF
110.1
FORM
447724
Trainer: Robert Cowell (T:13%) Jockey: George Wood Days off: 23
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
📏 TRIP PROVEN 🏇 JOCKEY RETAINED 🎭 HEADGEAR CHANGE 📊 VOLATILE (SD:13)
CONFIDENCE
★★☆☆☆
Significant concerns: Speed, Form.
TRAINER INTENT
—
No intent signals detected
JOCKEY
George Wood
No notable signals
SECTIONAL PROFILE GOOD FINISHER
102.8%
✓ Strong finishing kick
#3 GOOD POINT
🎯 ELITE C/D ⏱️ MEETS PAR 57.4
DRAW
1
AGE/WGT
4yo / 9-05
OR
65
TFR
80
TRUE SF
102.9
FORM
320425
Trainer: Bryan Smart Jockey: Aiden Brookes (3) (🎫 3lb claimer) Days off: 29
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
📏 TRIP PROVEN 📊 VOLATILE (SD:8)
CONFIDENCE
★★★★☆
Strong profile with minor Form concerns.
TRAINER INTENT
—
No intent signals detected
JOCKEY
⚖️ 3lb Claim
Apprentice Aiden Brookes claims 3lb weight allowance.
SECTIONAL PROFILE AVERAGE
101.9%
#4 MEGAPHONE
🎯 ELITE C/D 56.8
DRAW
5
AGE/WGT
3yo / 9-09
OR
69
TFR
81
TRUE SF
100.4
FORM
750647
Trainer: Scott Dixon (T:9%) Jockey: Kieran O'Neill Days off: 40
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
✅ GOING PROVEN 📏 TRIP PROVEN 🎭 HEADGEAR CHANGE 📊 VOLATILE (SD:8) 🎯 COMPOUND ANGLE (3) +2.0 🏟️ COURSE SPECIALIST (1/4) 📈 AT TROUGH (74%)
CONFIDENCE
★★☆☆☆
Significant concerns: Speed, Form.
TRAINER INTENT
—
No intent signals detected
JOCKEY
Kieran O'Neill
No notable signals
SECTIONAL PROFILE BELOW AVERAGE
101.5%
✓ Ideal profile for closing style
#5 PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
🎯 ELITE C/D 39.0
DRAW
3
AGE/WGT
3yo / 9-05
OR
65
TFR
80
TRUE SF
99.2
FORM
-24233
Trainer: Patrick Morris Jockey: Billy Loughnane (✓ Top jockey (18% SR)) Days off: 4
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
📏 TRIP PROVEN 🏇 JOCKEY RETAINED 📊 VOLATILE (SD:6) 📉 AT PEAK (79%)
CONFIDENCE
★★★☆☆
Mixed signals: Fitness positive but Speed is a worry.
TRAINER INTENT
⚡ Quick Back (4d)
Positive intent signals suggest connections are optimistic.
JOCKEY
Billy Loughnane
No notable signals
SECTIONAL PROFILE BELOW AVERAGE
101.5%
⚠ ⚠️ Weak finisher (bottom 21%)
#6 SPENDMORE LANE
29.7
DRAW
4
AGE/WGT
3yo / 9-00
OR
60
TFR
80
TRUE SF
100.0
FORM
277025
Trainer: David Loughnane (🏁 AW specialist (11% SR)) Jockey: Laura Pearson (J:9%) Days off: 23
🎯 ANALYSIS SIGNALS
📏 TRIP PROVEN 🏇 JOCKEY DOWNGRADE ⚠️ OUTCLASSED 📊 3-4 RUNS
CONFIDENCE
★☆☆☆☆
Multiple concerns - low confidence despite position.
TRAINER INTENT
—
No intent signals detected
JOCKEY
Laura Pearson
No notable signals
SECTIONAL PROFILE AVERAGE
101.6%
✓ Ideal profile for closing style
Excluded Horses
PHOENIX BEACH (IRE) Not placed in last 3 races
Speed Figure Analysis
Best True SF
110.1
Field Average
102.6
SF Range
11
With Figures
6/6
📊 True Speed Figure Methodology (Beyer/Variant-Adjusted)
PAR times from 67,000+ race results. Each race's variant (track condition) is calculated from winner's time vs PAR, then applied to all runners for true comparability across different days.
Formula: 100 + (PAR − Adjusted_time) × 6 | Adjusted = Raw − Variant
📈 True SF Scale
110+ Group/Listed class
105-109 Handicap winner
100-104 Par / Competitive
<95 Below average
True Speed Figure Comparison
1st SPEED OF MAAJID
110.1
+7.5
📉 DOWN
TURF
2nd GOOD POINT
102.9
+0.3
📉 DOWN
AW
3rd POPULAR DREAM
102.8
+0.2
➡️ STABLE
AW
MEGAPHONE
100.4
-2.2
📉 DOWN
AW
SPENDMORE LANE
100.0
-2.6
📈 UP
AW
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
99.2
-3.4
📉 DOWN
AW
TREND: 📈 Improving ➡️ Stable 📉 Declining
vs Avg: difference from 102.6
AW TURF
True Speed Figure Details
Horse Best SF Avg SF Recent Energy Trend SF Adj
SPEED OF MAAJID 110.1 89.9 99.3 🚀 Front DECLINING -4.3
GOOD POINT 102.9 92.2 96.5 ⚖️ Even DECLINING +1.4
POPULAR DREAM 102.8 94.4 93.6 ⚖️ Even STABLE -0.5
MEGAPHONE 100.4 85.6 90.3 🚀 Front DECLINING -4.0
SPENDMORE LANE 100.0 81.0 97.6 🚀 Front IMPROVING -1.4
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) 99.2 90.5 88.8 ⚖️ Even DECLINING -8.5
📈 Speed Progression Charts
True Speed Figures (100 = par) from our 67,000+ sectional database | 🥇 Gold = Win | 🟢 Turf | 🔵 AW
SPEED OF MAAJID
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 110.1
86.1
19 May
95.3
30 Jun
110.1
16 Jul
73.2
02 Sep
85.3
21 Sep
80.0
13 Oct
99.3
06 Nov
-
-
Avg: 89.9 Recent: 99.3
GOOD POINT
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 102.9
80.3
30 May
89.0
25 Aug
102.9
18 Oct
96.5
31 Oct
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Avg: 92.2 Recent: 96.5
POPULAR DREAM
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 102.8
99.6
17 Jan
82.5
04 Feb
94.6
11 Mar
102.8
21 Mar
93.4
28 Mar
88.1
29 Sep
100.8
31 Oct
93.6
21 Nov
Avg: 94.4 Recent: 93.6
MEGAPHONE
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 100.4
100.4
18 Apr
70.5
07 May
79.9
11 Jun
98.3
16 Jul
60.2
31 Jul
94.4
14 Oct
90.6
20 Oct
90.3
29 Nov
Avg: 85.6 Recent: 90.3
SPENDMORE LANE
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 100.0
55.4
04 Nov
68.6
02 Aug
97.2
21 Aug
66.9
02 Sep
100.0
23 Sep
97.6
06 Nov
-
-
-
-
Avg: 81.0 Recent: 97.6
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
⚡ VOLATILE Best: 99.2
99.2
05 Apr
96.5
26 Apr
77.4
10 Jun
88.8
28 Oct
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Avg: 90.5 Recent: 88.8
📊 Understanding True Speed Figures
True SF Scale
110+ Group/Listed class
105+ Handicap winner
100 Par (average)
<95 Below average
Chart Bars
Won race
Turf
All-Weather
Trends
📈 IMPROVING Getting faster
📉 DECLINING Slowing down
⚡ VOLATILE Inconsistent
➡️ STABLE Consistent
Energy Profile (Running Style)
🚀 Front Runner — Leads early, may tire late
⚖️ Even Pace — Balanced effort throughout
🏃 Strong Closer — Finishes fast, needs pace
💡 Tip: Back horses with high Best SF + Recent close to Best + IMPROVING. Match running style to pace — closers need fast pace, front runners need soft lead.
💡 Speed Analysis Insights
🏆 SPEED OF MAAJID has the best speed figure (110.1) — clear advantage of 7.2 points
📈 IMPROVING: SPENDMORE LANE — speed figures trending upward
📉 DECLINING: SPEED OF MAAJID, GOOD POINT, MEGAPHONE, PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) — may have peaked
📊 WIDE SPEED RANGE — 10.9 point spread suggests clear class levels.
Complete Ratings Breakdown
📊 How Ratings Are Calculated
Base Rating = TFR + Official Rating + Form analysis
Adjustments = Weight + Class + Going + Fitness + Draw Bias + Speed Trend + Intent + Distance
📖 Column Guide - What Each Adjustment Means
⚖️ WEIGHT
Quirin formula. Light weights gain advantage; heavy weights penalised.
📊 CLASS
Today's OR vs recent avg. Drop = positive; progressive rise = neutral; step up = negative.
🌧️ GOING
Surface preference. Proven on today's going = bonus.
🏃 FITNESS
Days since last run. Peak fitness (14-28 days) = positive; long absence = concern.
🏁 PACE
Running style vs pace scenario. Lone speed or closer in hot pace = edge.
📈 FIELD
OR vs field average. Higher rated = class edge; lower = outclassed.
📉 FORM
Recent form trajectory. Improving = positive; declining = warning.
⚡ SPEED
True Speed Figure (variant-adjusted). 100=par, 105+=class, 110+=elite.
🏆 C/D
Course & Distance record. Winner at C/D = major positive.
🎿 AW
All-weather surface transfer. Proven on this surface type = bonus.
🎯 PAR FS%
Finishing speed at C/D vs PAR. ELITE (+5) or STRONG (+3) = proven closer.
⏱️ PAR TIME
Race times at C/D vs PAR. Faster than PAR = proven ability here.
🟢 Green = positive adjustment | 🔴 Red = negative adjustment | ⚪ Grey = neutral (no impact)
Main Adjustments Summary
# Horse Rating Weight Class Going Fitness Pace Field Form Speed C/D AW PAR FS% PAR Time
#1 POPULAR DREAM 72.7 +0.0 +0.0 +1.0 +3.0 +0.5 +0.0 +1.0 -0.5 +2.0 +1.5 +5.0 +0.0
#2 SPEED OF MAAJID 58.4 -0.6 +2.0 +0.0 +1.5 +0.5 +0.0 -1.5 -4.3 +2.0 +1.5 +0.0 +0.0
#3 GOOD POINT 57.4 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +1.5 +0.5 +0.0 -2.5 +1.4 +5.0 +1.5 +5.0 +1.5
#4 MEGAPHONE 56.8 -1.2 +3.0 +2.0 +1.5 +0.5 +1.5 -5.0 -4.0 +5.0 +1.5 +5.0 +0.0
#5 PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) 39.0 +0.0 +0.0 -1.5 +2.0 +0.5 +0.0 +0.5 -8.5 +0.0 +0.0 +5.0 +0.0
#6 SPENDMORE LANE 29.7 +1.5 +1.0 -1.5 +1.5 +0.5 -2.5 -3.0 -1.4 +0.0 +1.5 +0.0 +0.0
Adjustment Breakdown
#1 POPULAR DREAM 72.7
⚖️ WEIGHT
+0.0
N/A
📊 CLASS
+0.0
Same class
🌧️ GOING
+1.0
Has Won
🏃 FITNESS
+3.0
N/A
⚡ SPEED
-0.5
STABLE
🏆 C/D
+2.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Hold Up
📊 FIELD
+0.0
AVERAGE
📈 FORM CYCLE
+1.0
🎿 AW
+1.5
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+5.0
ELITE C/D
⏱️ PAR TIME
+0.0
CAPABLE
🏆 WIN RATE
+5.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+2.0
3 angles
#2 SPEED OF MAAJID 58.4
⚖️ WEIGHT
-0.6
N/A
📊 CLASS
+2.0
CLASS DROP (..
🌧️ GOING
+0.0
Unproven
🏃 FITNESS
+1.5
N/A
⚡ SPEED
-4.3
DECLINING
🏆 C/D
+2.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Prominent
📊 FIELD
+0.0
AVERAGE
📈 FORM CYCLE
-1.5
🎿 AW
+1.5
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+0.0
BELOW PAR
⏱️ PAR TIME
+0.0
BELOW PAR TIME
🏆 WIN RATE
+5.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+0.0
2 angles
#3 GOOD POINT 57.4
⚖️ WEIGHT
+0.0
N/A
📊 CLASS
+0.0
Same class
🌧️ GOING
+0.0
Unproven
🏃 FITNESS
+1.5
N/A
⚡ SPEED
+1.4
DECLINING
🏆 C/D
+5.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Mid-Division
📊 FIELD
+0.0
AVERAGE
📈 FORM CYCLE
-2.5
🎿 AW
+1.5
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+5.0
ELITE C/D
⏱️ PAR TIME
+1.5
MEETS PAR
🏆 WIN RATE
-2.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+0.0
0 angles
#4 MEGAPHONE 56.8
⚖️ WEIGHT
-1.2
N/A
📊 CLASS
+3.0
CLASS DROP (..
🌧️ GOING
+2.0
Proven ✓
🏃 FITNESS
+1.5
N/A
⚡ SPEED
-4.0
DECLINING
🏆 C/D
+5.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Hold Up
📊 FIELD
+1.5
FAVOURABLE
📈 FORM CYCLE
-5.0
🎿 AW
+1.5
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+5.0
ELITE C/D
⏱️ PAR TIME
+0.0
CAPABLE
🏆 WIN RATE
+5.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+2.0
3 angles
#5 PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) 39.0
⚖️ WEIGHT
+0.0
N/A
📊 CLASS
+0.0
First handic..
🌧️ GOING
-1.5
Struggles
🏃 FITNESS
+2.0
N/A
⚡ SPEED
-8.5
DECLINING
🏆 C/D
+0.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Prominent
📊 FIELD
+0.0
AVERAGE
📈 FORM CYCLE
+0.5
🎿 AW
+0.0
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+5.0
ELITE C/D
⏱️ PAR TIME
+0.0
CAPABLE
🏆 WIN RATE
-2.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+0.0
2 angles
#6 SPENDMORE LANE 29.7
⚖️ WEIGHT
+1.5
N/A
📊 CLASS
+1.0
CLASS DROP (..
🌧️ GOING
-1.5
Struggles
🏃 FITNESS
+1.5
N/A
⚡ SPEED
-1.4
IMPROVING
🏆 C/D
+0.0
Course/Dist
🏁 PACE FIT
+0.0
Mid-Division
📊 FIELD
-2.5
TOUGH
📈 FORM CYCLE
-3.0
🎿 AW
+1.5
Surface
🎯 PAR FS%
+0.0
N/A
⏱️ PAR TIME
+0.0
N/A
🏆 WIN RATE
-2.0
Career W%
⚡ FIN SPD
+0.0
Last FS%
🎯 COMPOUND
+0.0
1 angles
📋 Factor Checklist
10-Factor Analysis (Ainslie Method)
Every factor that affects how a horse runs must be considered. Horses scoring 7+ factors are strong contenders.
📖 What Each Factor Tests:
✓ Speed: Has competitive speed figures vs field
✓ Class: Not rising in class (or small rise only)
✓ Form: At least one top-4 finish in last 3 runs
✓ Distance: Proven winner at today's trip
✓ Course: Has won at this track before
✓ Going: Proven on today's ground conditions
✓ Draw: Not significantly disadvantaged by stall
✓ Fitness: Optimal or good fitness (no layoff concern)
✓ Weight: Not carrying excessive burden vs rivals
✓ Connections: Top jockey or positive trainer signals
🏷️ Verdict Classifications:
STRONG CONTENDER - 8+ factors with strong positive adjustments. Top pick.
SOLID PROFILE - 8+ factors but modest adjustments. Consistent type.
EACH-WAY ANGLE - 6-7 factors. Place claims, frame chance.
FITNESS QUERY - Positive profile but returning from 100+ day layoff.
NEEDS TO BOUNCE - Good factors but negative total adjustment. Needs to improve.
MIXED PROFILE - 4-5 factors. Some positives but significant concerns.
MAJOR CONCERNS - Fitness issues AND negative adjustments. Hard to back.
AGAINST - Under 4 factors. Too many negatives to consider.
📊 Field Snapshot
• GOOD POINT and MEGAPHONE are the only C/D winners - key clash
• POPULAR DREAM, MEGAPHONE have multiple positive factors aligned
⚡ Key Factors For Today
Course MEDIUM
Multiple C/D winners - proven track form an edge
🎰 Starting Stalls - Draw Bias Indicator
1 2 3 4 5 6 🟢 Favoured | 🔴 Against | ⚪ Neutral
No significant draw bias detected
SPEED OF MAAJID
NEEDS TO BOUNCE
9/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
✅
Distance
✅
Course
✅
Going
✅
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
📊 Solid Finisher
102.8% closing speed
⚠️ KEY RISKS
❓ Exposed Maiden
Yet to break duck
⚠️ Speed Concern
Below field pace
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: runs to recent 110 speed rating and strong 102.6% finish kicks in
LOSES IF: yet to break duck
GOOD POINT
STRONG CONTENDER
9/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
✅
Distance
✅
Course
✅
Going
✅
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
🎯 Proven C/D Winner
C/D bonus: +5 points
⚠️ KEY RISKS
❓ Exposed Maiden
Yet to break duck
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: runs to recent 103 speed rating and strong 102.1% finish kicks in
LOSES IF: yet to break duck
POPULAR DREAM
STRONG CONTENDER
8/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
✅
Distance
✅
Course
✅
Going
❌
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
✅ Peak Fitness
Fresh from 8d break
📊 Solid Finisher
102.1% closing speed
⚠️ KEY RISKS
No major concerns identified
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: runs to recent 103 speed rating and strong 103.3% finish kicks in
LOSES IF: unable to raise game
MEGAPHONE
NEEDS TO BOUNCE
8/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
✅
Distance
✅
Course
✅
Going
❌
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
🎯 Proven C/D Winner
C/D bonus: +5 points
✅ Going Proven
Excellent ground record
⚠️ KEY RISKS
📋 Form Slump
Recent results disappointing
❓ Exposed Maiden
Yet to break duck
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: course form (1 wins here) proves key and runs to recent 100 speed rating
LOSES IF: recent form slide continues
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
NEEDS TO BOUNCE
7/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
❌
Distance
❌
Course
✅
Going
✅
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
No standout positives identified
⚠️ KEY RISKS
🐢 Slow Clockings
Speed figures -8.5
❓ Exposed Maiden
Yet to break duck
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: runs to recent 99 speed rating and tracks pace from 2.3L position
LOSES IF: speed figures -8.5
SPENDMORE LANE
NEEDS TO BOUNCE
7/10
FACTORS
✅
Speed
✅
Class
✅
Form
❌
Distance
❌
Course
✅
Going
✅
Draw
✅
Fitness
✅
Weight
❌
Connections
💪 KEY STRENGTHS
No standout positives identified
⚠️ KEY RISKS
⚠️ Class Test
5lbs below field
📋 Form Slump
Recent results disappointing
🎯 BETTING VERDICT
WINS IF: runs to recent 100 speed rating and stall 4 advantage proves decisive
LOSES IF: recent form slide continues or class gap too steep
📊 Adjustment Breakdown
Horse Speed Pace Field Form Fitness C/D Total
POPULAR DREAM -0.5 +0.5 +0.0 +1.0 +3.0 +2.0 +6.0
Fair handicapper. A confirmed Hold Up.
SPEED OF MAAJID -4.3 +0.5 +0.0 -1.5 +1.5 +2.0 -1.8
Fair handicapper. A confirmed Prominent.
GOOD POINT +1.4 +0.5 +0.0 -2.5 +1.5 +5.0 +5.9
Fair handicapper. C/D winner adds confidence. Ran a creditable LTO according to Timeform.
MEGAPHONE -4.0 +0.5 +1.5 -5.0 +1.5 +5.0 -0.5
Fair handicapper. C/D winner adds confidence.
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE) -8.5 +0.5 +0.0 +0.5 +2.0 +0.0 -5.5
Speed figures (-8.5) suggest a lack of raw pace for this grade. A confirmed Prominent.
SPENDMORE LANE -1.4 +0.5 -2.5 -3.0 +1.5 +0.0 -4.9
Fair handicapper. A confirmed Mid-Division.
Pace Analysis & Running Positions
📊
WOLVERHAMPTON PACE ANALYSIS
Based on 6,406 historical runs with sectional timing
🏟️ TRACK PACE BIAS
EXTREME
Front-runners dominate (22% win rate). Closers struggle (0.9%).
Leaders
22%
Closers
0.9%
🏁 TODAY'S RACE SCENARIO
⚖️
EVEN PACE
True-run race - form should hold up
Confirmed front-runners: 0
None identified
✓ PACE SUITS
No clear beneficiaries - balanced race
✗ AGAINST PACE
No horses significantly disadvantaged
PACE MAP
Expected running positions at the sectional point
⬅️
◀ FRONT
REAR ▶
SPEED OF MAAJID
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
GOOD POINT
SPENDMORE LANE
POPULAR DREAM
MEGAPHONE
Front
Prominent
Mid-Div
Hold Up
Closer
⚖️
Pace Forecast
EVEN PACE
6 Runners
Positioned from sectional data
⏱️
PAR FINISHING SPEED - WOLVERHAMPTON 5f
FIELD PAR
99.5%
Average finish speed
WINNER TARGET
99.8%
Winners average +0.3%
SAMPLE SIZE
759
Historical runs
💡 Horses with finishing speed above 99.8% have proven winner-level closing ability at this C/D
🏁
RACE TIME PAR - WOLVERHAMPTON 5f
PAR TIME
1:00.89
Avg winner time
FASTEST
58.23s
Course record
SLOWEST
1:03.35
Slowest winner
PACE
11.9s
Per furlong
📊 Based on 78 winners at this C/D
🎯 PAR Analysis (C/D) - Course/Distance performance vs PAR benchmarks
🎯 ELITE C/D Finish speed above winner avg (+5)
🎯 STRONG C/D Finish speed above field PAR (+3)
⏱️ ELITE TIME Ran faster than PAR time (+3)
⏱️ MEETS PAR Solid time within range (+1.5)
⚠️ Trouble-in-Running Analysis (Ainslie) - Horses with excuses from last time out
⚠️ HAD EXCUSES Major trouble: hampered, blocked, short of room (+2.5-5.0)
⚡ HAD TROUBLE Minor trouble: slowly away, switched, bumped (+1.0-2.0)
IPS Actual (from past races)
Pace Map Predicted
Our Sectional Data (67K database)
⚠ Major discrepancy (value angle)
FRONT
PROMINENT
MID-DIV
HOLD UP
CLOSER
PEREGRINE FALCON (IRE)
🎯 ELITE C/D
● IPS: Prominent (2.4) ★★★
○ Predicted: Prominent (1.7)
◆ Sectional: Mid-Division (2.3L at sect) ★★★ • 4 runs
C/D Finish: 103.0% (+3.5% vs PAR) • 2 runs
C/D Time: 1:00.95 (+0.1s vs 1:00.89) • 2 runs
PHOENIX BEACH (IRE)
🎯 ELITE C/D ⏱️ MEETS PAR
● IPS: Prominent (2.4) ★★★
○ Predicted: Prominent (1.7)
C/D Finish: 102.1% (+2.6% vs PAR) • 8 runs
C/D Time: 1:00.25 (-0.6s vs 1:00.89) • 8 runs
GOOD POINT
🎯 ELITE C/D ⏱️ MEETS PAR
● IPS: Prominent (2.2) ★★★
○ Predicted: Prominent (2.5)
◆ Sectional: Mid-Division (3.1L at sect) ★★★ • 4 runs
C/D Finish: 103.5% (+4.0% vs PAR) • 1 runs
C/D Time: 1:00.64 (-0.2s vs 1:00.89) • 1 runs
SPEED OF MAAJID
● IPS: Mid-Division (2.8) ★★★
○ Predicted: Mid-Division (2.7)
◆ Sectional: Prominent (2.1L at sect) ★★★ • 7 runs
C/D Finish: 99.3% (-0.2% vs PAR) • 1 runs
C/D Time: 1:02.18 (+1.3s vs 1:00.89) • 1 runs
POPULAR DREAM
🎯 ELITE C/D
● IPS: Mid-Division (3.4) ★★★
○ Predicted: Hold Up (3.6)
◆ Sectional: Hold Up (3.9L at sect) ★★★ • 14 runs
C/D Finish: 104.8% (+5.3% vs PAR) • 2 runs
C/D Time: 1:01.45 (+0.6s vs 1:00.89) • 2 runs
MEGAPHONE
🎯 ELITE C/D
● IPS: Mid-Division (3.3) ★★★
○ Predicted: Hold Up (3.8)
◆ Sectional: Hold Up (4.4L at sect) ★★★ • 11 runs
C/D Finish: 100.6% (+1.1% vs PAR) • 2 runs
C/D Time: 1:00.97 (+0.1s vs 1:00.89) • 2 runs
SPENDMORE LANE
≠ Minor
● IPS: Mid-Division (3.2) ★★★
○ Predicted: Hold Up (4.2)
◆ Sectional: Mid-Division (3.4L at sect) ★★★ • 6 runs
💡 Pace Analysis Insights

● IPS (In-Play Speed) - Where a horse actually races based on historical Timeform data.

○ Predicted - Today's pace map forecast from Timeform for this race.

◆ Sectional - Our proprietary analysis from 67,000+ sectional timing records. Shows average margin at the sectional point. The "runs" count indicates how many races with sectional data we have for this horse - more runs = more reliable data.

⚠ MAJOR discrepancies between the three sources can indicate value angles - the horse may run differently than the market expects.