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Pound Steady Near Highs Ahead of US PCE, UK Turmoil

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Forex and Currency News

Trading Guides and Education, Financial News, Reports and Analyses

Trading Pedia

Sandra Leggero

Key Moments

  
    GBP/USD trades around 1.3175 in Thursday's Asian session after recovering earlier losses.
    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on Monday following Andy Burnham's Makerfield by-election victory, creating renewed political uncertainty.
    Markets eye Thursday's US May PCE data, with headline inflation expected at 4.1% YoY and core at 3.4% YoY, as Fed hike expectations rise.
  


GBP/USD Holds Firm Despite UK Political Shock

The British Pound is maintaining recent gains against the US Dollar, with GBP/USD trading close to 1.3175 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair is retracing earlier declines, although the advance may be capped by escalating political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and a growing conviction that US interest rates could rise again this year.


Market participants are awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May later on Thursday, which is expected to provide fresh direction for the currency pair.


Starmer's Resignation Triggers New Phase of UK Political Risk

UK politics has been thrust back into turmoil after Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on Monday. His departure comes after heavy pressure following Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election last week. With Starmer stepping down, the Labour Party must now select a new leader to run the country.


Investors are watching closely to see how Burnham's policy agenda might evolve. Analysts have cautioned that his preference for a more expansionary fiscal approach, alongside higher taxes and increased gilt issuance, could act as a headwind for the British Pound against the US Dollar.


US PCE Inflation Data in Focus

The May reading of the US PCE Price Index is expected to be the key macro event on Thursday. Consensus projections point to headline PCE inflation rising 4.1% year-over-year in May, compared with 3.8% in April. Core PCE is anticipated to come in at 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% previously.


Any indication that US inflation is easing could weigh on the US Dollar and support further gains in GBP/USD. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening and bolster the Greenback.



  
    
      US PCE Inflation Metrics (YoY)
      April
      May (Expected)
    
  
  
    
      Headline PCE
      3.8%
      4.1%
    
    
      Core PCE
      3.3%
      3.4%
    
  


Fed Expectations Shift Toward Additional Rate Hikes

Alongside the inflation data, investors are reassessing the path of US interest rates after a more hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have now priced in a 34.2% probability of a 25 basis points rate increase at the July meeting, sharply higher than the 8.5% probability seen a week earlier. The likelihood of a similar hike in September has risen to 66.4%, up from 29.1% over the same period.


These shifting expectations are providing some support to the US Dollar, potentially limiting the Pound's upside in the near term despite its current strength above 1.3150.



  
    
      Fed Rate Hike Probabilities (25 bps)
      Current
      One Week Ago
    
  
  
    
      July Meeting
      34.2%
      8.5%
    
    
      September Meeting
      66.4%
      29.1%
    
  


Background: Pound Sterling and Key Drivers

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the official currency of the United Kingdom and is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). It is described as the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and is noted as the fourth most traded currency in global foreign exchange markets, accounting for 12% of all transactions and averaging $630 billion a day, based on 2022 data. The most important exchange pairs cited are GBP/USD (often called "Cable"), representing 11% of FX trading; GBP/JPY, commonly referred to by traders as the "Dragon," at 3%; and EUR/GBP at 2%.


Role of the Bank of England in GBP Valuation

Monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England are identified as the primary influence on the Pound's value. The BoE targets "price stability," defined as an inflation rate around 2%, and adjusts interest rates as its main tool.


  When inflation runs too high, the BoE aims to cool it by lifting interest rates, which raises borrowing costs and is generally supportive of GBP by attracting foreign capital.
  When inflation is too low and signals weakening growth, the BoE may lower rates to encourage borrowing and investment, which can be less favorable for the currency.


Economic Data and Trade Balance Effects on Sterling

The value of the Pound is also shaped by macroeconomic releases, including GDP figures, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and labor market data. Strong readings tend to support Sterling by signaling a healthier economy and potentially prompting tighter monetary policy. Weaker data can have the opposite effect and pressure the currency.


The trade balance is another important indicator. It measures the difference between export earnings and import spending over a given period. Countries that produce goods and services with strong external demand can see their currencies strengthen as foreign buyers increase demand for the local currency. A positive net trade balance can therefore support GBP, while a negative balance can weigh on it.

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